News Analysis...It's Over!
http://newpittsburghcourieronline.com/articlelive/articles/40670/1/News-AnalysisIts-Over/Page1.html
Ron Walters
NNPA COLUMNIST
By Ron Walters
Published on 05/7/2008
News Analysis...It's Over!
by Ron Walters
For New Pittsburgh Courier
What we can say at this point in the race for the Democratic nomination between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is that Obama has won.
In fact, the numbers suggest that he probably has won since Wisconsin. On the night of May 6, Barack Obama won North Carolina handily at 56 percent and came within a hair of winning Indiana although losing 51-49. This was not wish of those in the media and the Clinton campaign who wanted her to win strongly in both states, not limp in with Indiana and lose North Carolina.
The strategy of the Clinton campaign however, has been to string the election out, hoping that Obama would stumble hard enough to fall, proving that he was un-electable and knocked out of the race. The “stumble strategy” however, has failed that was defined by the speech in which he said that the low income voters are “bitter” about their condition (by the way, in her speech following the squeaker in Indiana, she called them “invisible”) and by the video clips of Rev. Jeremiah Wright. In fact, even on the national level, while 23 percent of people polled said they were concerned by Rev. Wright, 33 percent said they felt Hillary was not truthful!
Then, the Republican strategy worked out by Karl Rove and Rush Limbaugh which had Republicans voting for Hillary Clinton to make her the nominee so that they could beat her to death, was only minimally successful. In fact, if Republicans had not given Obama 45 percent of their vote in Indiana, he probably could have made up Hillary’s 20,000 lead to take that state also.
What remains now are the conditions under which Hillary will concede defeat. The pressure is building, because her campaign is again running out of money, rumors are that she has lent it some more, Superdelegates continue to leave and the media momentum has finally swung back to Obama. From here on the media will ask the question as they did of Rev. Jackson in 1984, “what does Hillary want?” That will have to be worked out in private.
The past shows that where candidates competing for the nomination in hard fought contest were able to join a unity pact, the party went into the Fall election united, but where they couldn’t they lost. So, Hillary will make some demands of Obama, perhaps to campaign, to accept some of her staff and some of her issues, some seats on the Democratic national committee and who knows what else.
Nevertheless, Barack Obama can now turn his campaign to John McCain and less to Clinton and begin the contest for the presidency. His acceptance speech after winning North Carolina was the last of the primary and the first of the campaign.
In it, he satisfied all the media demands about his loyalty, his love of country, his personal character, and etc. and suggested that in spite of the distractions thrown in his way, the American people were still winning through is campaign. It was powerful stuff and in the immediate aftermath, signs are that it has had a positive effect on the media.
They are begining to ask the question, “why wasn’t Hillary able to close?” in seeming disbelief that a half-term Senator has knocked out the powerful Clinton machine. One answer, Black voters, who went with Obama as a 91 percent clip in North Caroline and 92 percent in Indiana, is on the table. Indeed, it is so much on the table that if the Clinton’s campaign for Obama in the general election, I wonder whether they will be sent into the Black community.
The other good sign, especially in the Indiana election, was that Barack Obama regained his lead with Independents (53-47 percent), since in the interim of fighting the barriers, the press had given the Independents to John McCain. Obama, however, should be competitive with McCain there, with the exit polls showing Obama beating McCain 53-42 percent in North Carolina and 50-47 percent in Indiana.
The last step will be for the DNC to handle the Florida and Michigan problem at its May 31 Rules Committee meeting in a way that doesn’t muddy the waters of Obama’s march to the nomination.
There are many rumors floating about that Hillary has the Committee packed with her people, but by this time, her tent should be folded and they should under the discipline of the deal between her camp and Obama’s. So, the name of the game now should be cruise control for Obama.
Dr. Ron Walters is the Distinguished Leadership Scholar, Director of the African American Leadership Center, and Professor of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland College Park. One of his latest books is: Freedom Is Not Enough: Black Voters, Black Candidates and American Presidential Politics (Rowman and Littlefield).
For New Pittsburgh Courier
What we can say at this point in the race for the Democratic nomination between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is that Obama has won.
In fact, the numbers suggest that he probably has won since Wisconsin. On the night of May 6, Barack Obama won North Carolina handily at 56 percent and came within a hair of winning Indiana although losing 51-49. This was not wish of those in the media and the Clinton campaign who wanted her to win strongly in both states, not limp in with Indiana and lose North Carolina.
The strategy of the Clinton campaign however, has been to string the election out, hoping that Obama would stumble hard enough to fall, proving that he was un-electable and knocked out of the race. The “stumble strategy” however, has failed that was defined by the speech in which he said that the low income voters are “bitter” about their condition (by the way, in her speech following the squeaker in Indiana, she called them “invisible”) and by the video clips of Rev. Jeremiah Wright. In fact, even on the national level, while 23 percent of people polled said they were concerned by Rev. Wright, 33 percent said they felt Hillary was not truthful!
Then, the Republican strategy worked out by Karl Rove and Rush Limbaugh which had Republicans voting for Hillary Clinton to make her the nominee so that they could beat her to death, was only minimally successful. In fact, if Republicans had not given Obama 45 percent of their vote in Indiana, he probably could have made up Hillary’s 20,000 lead to take that state also.
What remains now are the conditions under which Hillary will concede defeat. The pressure is building, because her campaign is again running out of money, rumors are that she has lent it some more, Superdelegates continue to leave and the media momentum has finally swung back to Obama. From here on the media will ask the question as they did of Rev. Jackson in 1984, “what does Hillary want?” That will have to be worked out in private.
The past shows that where candidates competing for the nomination in hard fought contest were able to join a unity pact, the party went into the Fall election united, but where they couldn’t they lost. So, Hillary will make some demands of Obama, perhaps to campaign, to accept some of her staff and some of her issues, some seats on the Democratic national committee and who knows what else.
Nevertheless, Barack Obama can now turn his campaign to John McCain and less to Clinton and begin the contest for the presidency. His acceptance speech after winning North Carolina was the last of the primary and the first of the campaign.
In it, he satisfied all the media demands about his loyalty, his love of country, his personal character, and etc. and suggested that in spite of the distractions thrown in his way, the American people were still winning through is campaign. It was powerful stuff and in the immediate aftermath, signs are that it has had a positive effect on the media.
They are begining to ask the question, “why wasn’t Hillary able to close?” in seeming disbelief that a half-term Senator has knocked out the powerful Clinton machine. One answer, Black voters, who went with Obama as a 91 percent clip in North Caroline and 92 percent in Indiana, is on the table. Indeed, it is so much on the table that if the Clinton’s campaign for Obama in the general election, I wonder whether they will be sent into the Black community.
The other good sign, especially in the Indiana election, was that Barack Obama regained his lead with Independents (53-47 percent), since in the interim of fighting the barriers, the press had given the Independents to John McCain. Obama, however, should be competitive with McCain there, with the exit polls showing Obama beating McCain 53-42 percent in North Carolina and 50-47 percent in Indiana.
The last step will be for the DNC to handle the Florida and Michigan problem at its May 31 Rules Committee meeting in a way that doesn’t muddy the waters of Obama’s march to the nomination.
There are many rumors floating about that Hillary has the Committee packed with her people, but by this time, her tent should be folded and they should under the discipline of the deal between her camp and Obama’s. So, the name of the game now should be cruise control for Obama.
Dr. Ron Walters is the Distinguished Leadership Scholar, Director of the African American Leadership Center, and Professor of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland College Park. One of his latest books is: Freedom Is Not Enough: Black Voters, Black Candidates and American Presidential Politics (Rowman and Littlefield).