by Dorothy Rowley
Despite marginal success with his foreign policy, attempts to reduce unemployment and the recent loss of Democratic control of the House of Representatives, President Barack Obama still seems to be on the path for a successful 2012 campaign bid, according to a recent New York Times report written by Jeff Somner.
In addition, economists like Yale University professor Ray Fair predict that by 2011, the economy may have rebounded, and that Obama will likely face a weak opponent.
In the Times article, Fair forecasts a landslide victory for the first term commander-in chief based on progress in the economy, the same strategy employed in 1992 by James Carville, which propelled Bill Clinton to the White House.
Fair also claims the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. “In recent columns I’ve explored how elections—and Wall Street’s beliefs about them—affect the markets and the economy,” Sommer wrote. “Professor Fair has studied the flip side: how the economy helps to determine elections.”
Sommer wrote that while Fair was updating his 2002 book, “Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things,” he calculated that the likely outcome of the 2012 presidential election is “an Obama victory,” regardless of whom he runs against [and that] if my model’s right, it couldn’t look better for Obama.”
Meanwhile, Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has been talked about as a possible candidate to run against Obama. But while she has remained popular with many Republicans, her favorability ratings are low among the rest of the electorate, according to national political analyst Matt Lewis, who said Palin stands a decent chance of winning a GOP nomination but “claiming the presidency would be dramatically tougher.”
(Special to the NNPA from the AFRO-American Newspapers)